Spring 2022 Syllabus

 

U.S. Intelligence and Foreign Policymaking: China, North Korea, and Beyond

EXP-0078 • Monday 4:30 - 5:45 PM
First class: January 24, 2022
Dr. Sue Mi Terry
(Director, Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History
and Public Policy, Wilson Center)
Sue-Mi.Terry@tufts.edu
Lane Hall, Room 100A

Zoom info: https://tufts.zoom.us/j/97275934743?pwd=U2tBWFN6UVJnS1pPeVNOUkM0aHdpZz09
Meeting ID: 972 7593 4743
Passcode: 128056

 

Spring 2022, SYLLABUS

Download in .pdf format here

 

COURSE OUTLINE

Course Description and Objectives

How can we make sense of how America makes its foreign policy at a time of turmoil and transformation? What is, and should be, America’s role and interest in addressing myriad complex global challenges? This seminar series will explore the major issues in U.S. foreign policymaking with a particular focus on China and North Korea as case studies. The course will begin by examining the role of the intelligence community in U.S. policymaking and then explore the major institutions and actors in the U.S. foreign policymaking system. We will then examine in-depth U.S. policy towards China and the Korean Peninsula to see how U.S. foreign policymaking works. The course will look at the historical context behind American decision-making, present-day issues, and future challenges. We will conclude by looking more broadly at U.S. policy towards Northeast Asia, one of the most significant and dynamic regions in global politics.

Requirements

Students are required to do the assigned readings in advance of the class in which they will be discussed, and to actively participate in class discussions. Additionally, students will have an in-class mid-term and are required to write a policy options paper. Students will also give a 15-minute group oral presentation.

Midterm: Students will write three short essays in class. Oral Presentation: Students will give a 15-minute individual or group oral presentation/briefing on a topic of their choice. The topic may relate to any relevant regional or U.S. foreign policy issue regarding Northeast Asia. Students must have their topic approved before presenting.

Policy Options Paper: The policy options paper (6 to 8 single-spaced pages) consists of a thoughtful examination of a current issue related to either China, Taiwan, North or South Korea, or the Northeast Asian region more generally and its implications for U.S foreign policymaking. The policy paper should educate the reader about the nature of the issue being examined, including relevant background information and its current status, and the different alternatives that U.S. policymakers might pursue to resolve the issue. The paper should begin with a succinct historical summary of the issue, followed by a description of key concerns. The paper should conclude with a realistic strategy for addressing the issue and a recommended course of action for policymakers, including practical means of implementing the recommended option. The paper must also weigh the potential risks and opportunities of the recommended policy.

Evaluation methods

The grade distribution for the course will be as follows:

• Class attendance and participation (15% of the final grade)
• In-class midterm examination (25% of the final grade)
• Oral presentation (25% of the final grade)
• Final Policy Options Paper (35% of the final grade)

Class Policies

Electronic Devices. Cell phones and other communication devices should not be used during in-person or online sessions, except in the case of an emergency. Please keep the ringers off and the phone stowed away. Engaging in activities not related to the course (e.g., gaming, email, chat) that disrupt in-class or online experiences for others will result in a deduction in your participation grade.

Written work. Written work submitted to the instructor must be original and single spaced with 12-point type (Times New Roman font), 1-inch margins all around, and one line between paragraphs. Assignments should not exceed the specified page limit.

Academic Integrity. There will be zero tolerance for academic dishonesty, and we will strictly enforce Tufts University’s Honor Code. Students must do their own work on all exams and other assignments for this course. Students found to have violated the Honor Code through plagiarism or any other act of academic dishonesty can expect a zero on the assignment and referral to the disciplinary process. Please note: We will utilize Turnitin.com to check all written work for plagiarism. Students with questions or concerns regarding these policies, including questions about appropriate citation techniques or avoiding plagiarism, should talk with the professor.

Required Texts

Readings have been selected to provide a range of perspectives on any given topic, enabling students to assess competing arguments and form their own opinions. “Further readings” are not required but are listed in case students would like to delve more deeply into various issue areas. The course will use variety of different publications listed on the below syllabus.

 

Class Schedule

Monday, January 24

Introduction and course overview (In person)

First class will include the instructor’s introduction of herself and the course, including an overview of the readings and class requirement.

• Michael D. Ramsey and Stephen I. Vladek, “Commander in Chief Clause,” Interactive Constitution site of the National Constitutional Center, undated.
• Michael J. Morell, “The Turn to War: 11 September 2001: With the President,” Approved for Release September 10, 2014.
• On writing for policymakers: “Application Pro Tip: Writing an Impactful Policy Memo”.

 

Monday, January 31

The Role of Intelligence (Online)

What exactly is intelligence work and how is it done? How does intelligence--the collection and analysis of the plans and capabilities of our adversaries--fit into the U.S. foreign policymaking process? What goes into preparing the President’s Daily Brief and National Intelligence Estimates? The Intelligence Community is more than the CIA and FBI. It is a group of 18 agencies that includes the National Security Agency, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, and many others. They collect information (for example, how many nuclear weapons China, Iran, or North Korea possesses), assess its accuracy and reliability, and disseminate the information to decisionmakers. The hardest challenge for the intelligence community is assessing the intentions of adversaries. In this course, we will explore why first-rate intelligence is essential in helping U.S. policymakers both understand and respond to the unprecedented national security threats and challenges the country faces today—and how intelligence is used and not used by senior policymakers.

• President’s Daily Brief, “Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US,” August 6, 2001, Declassified and approved for release, April 10, 2004.
• Podcast, “Former Deputy Intelligence Briefer David Priess on the Past and Future of the PDB,” Intelligence Matters with Michael Morrell, Former Acting Director of the CIA.
• Overview of covert action by CIA’s Chief Historian, David Robarge with David Kris, Former Assistant Attorney General for National Security. The Lawfare Podcast: Covert Action, March 17, 2021.
• Michael Warner, “The Creation of the Central Intelligence Group,” CIA’s Journal of Studies Intelligence.
• John L. Helgerson, “Chapter 9: Donald J. Trump—A Unique Challenge,” Getting to Know the President, Fourth Edition.
• Zachary Tyson Brown, “Biden Has a Golden Chance to Remake U.S. Intelligence: Agencies Need to Adapt to An Information-Heavy Era,” Foreign Policy, January 22, 2021.

 

Monday, February 7

U.S. Foreign-Policy Making (Online)

• Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., “Congress and the Making of American Foreign Policy,” Foreign Affairs, October 1972.
• CRS Report for Congress, “Foreign Policy Roles of the President and Congress,” June 1, 1999.
• Jonathan Masters, “U.S. Foreign Policy Powers: Congress and the President,” Council on Foreign Relations, March 2, 2017.
• Joseph Cassidy, “U.S. Foreign Policy Architecture for the 21st Century,” Wilson Center, December 9, 2016.

 

Monday, February 14

Case Study #1 – China (Historical background 1945-1949: China’s Civil War & the U.S. “Loss” of China) (Online)

Further viewing / reading:

• Ernest R. May, “1947-48: When Marshall Kept the U.S. Out of War in China,” The George C. Marshall Lecture in Military History, May 2002
• Daniel Kurtz-Phelan, “The Marshall Plan That Failed: Before George Marshall transformed American foreign policy in Europe, he lost a major political fight in China,” The Atlantic, July 30, 2018.
• John Pomfret, “Gen. George Marshall’s impossible mission in China: Stop a civil war,” The Washington Post, April 20, 2018
• Nishant Dahiya, “Answering The Old Question: Who Lost China? NPR, November 8, 2014
• Kenneth S. Chern, “Politics of American China Policy, 1945: Roots of the Cold War in Asia,” Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 91, No. 4 (Winter, 1976-1977), 631-647.
• We will feature in this class a guest speaker, Dr. Paul Heer, who has served 30 years in the U.S. government, including the Central Intelligence Agency’s Senior Analytic Service prior to becoming National Intelligence Officer for East Asia at the National Intelligence Council.

Further reading / viewing:

• Paul J. Heer, “Mr. X and the Pacific—George F. Kennan and American Policy in East Asia (Itaca: Cornell University Press, 2018), chapter 2 on “China: “Minimum Aid” and “Maximum Flexibility.”

 

Thursday, February 24 (Instead of Feb 21, President’s Day)

Case Study #2 – the Korean Peninsula (Historical background: The Emergence of the Two Koreas, the Korean War, and International Implications of the Korean War) (Online)

• Charles K. Armstrong, “The Cultural Cold War in Korea, 1945–1950,” Journal of Asian Studies, 62.1 (February 2003): 71-99.
• Douglas MacArthur, “Old Soldiers Never Die,” United States Capitol, Washington D.C., 19 April 1951.
• Robert Jervis, “The Impact of the Korean War on the Cold War,” in The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 24, No. 4 (December, 1980).
• Liam Stack, “Korean War, a ‘Forgotten’ Conflict That Shaped the Modern World,” The New York Times, January 1, 2018.

 

Monday, February 28

China’s Rise and Sino-US Relations, Part I

• The National Security Archive, “The Beijing-Washington Back-Channel and Henry Kissinger’s Secret Trip to China, September 1970-July 1971,” Briefing Book No 66.
• Joseph Bosco, “The One China Policy: What Would Nixon Do? The Diplomat, January 5, 2017.
• John Culver, “The Unfinished Chinese Civil War,” The Interpreter, September 30, 2020.
• John Mearsheimer, “China’s Unpeaceful Rise,” Current History (April 2006): 160-162.
• Paul J. Heer, “Understanding U.S.-China Strategic Competition,” The National Interest, October 20, 2020.

Oral presentations begin

 

Monday, March 7

China’s Rise and Sino-US Relations, Part 2

• Stephen Kotkin, “Realist World: The Players Change, but the Game Remains,” Foreign Affairs, (July/August 2018)
• Kurt M. Campbell and Jake Sullivan, “Competition without Catastrophe: How America Can both Challenge and Coexist with China,” Foreign Affairs, (September/October 2019)
• Jessica Chen Weiss, “Ours Will No Longer Be a Nation Subject to Insult and Humiliation,” New York Times, September 28, 2019
• Paul Heer, “There Will be a U.S.-China Cold War,” The National Interest, October 3, 2021.

Oral presentations

Further viewing / reading:

• Elizabeth Economy with John Promfret, “The Future of Xi Jinping’s China,” discussion hosted by the World Affairs Council, May 7, 2018 (1 hour, 53 minutes)
• Colin Meisel and Jonathan D. Moyer, “Preparing for China’s Rapid Rise and Decline,” War on the Rocks, April 15, 2019 (8 pages)

 

Monday, March 14

In Class Mid-term (Online)

 

Monday, March 21

(Spring Recess). No class.

 

Monday, March 28

The North Korean Nuclear Threat and US Policy Toward North Korea, Part I

• Tertitskiy, Fyodor. “How Kim Il Sung became North Korea’s Great Leader.” NK News, Nov 2018.
• Daniel Byman and Jennifer Lind, “Pyongyang’s Survival Strategy: Tools of Authoritarian Control in North Korea,” International Security, Vol. 35, No. 1 (Summer 2010), 44-74.
• Mark Episkopos, “Yes, North Korea’s Nuclear Missiles Are Getting Better and Better,” The National Interest.
• Max Fisher, “The single most important fact for understanding North Korea.” Vox, Jan 2016.
• Markus V. Garlauskas, “We Must Prevent North Korea From Testing Multiple Reentry Vehicles,” CSIS Korea Chair Beyond Parallel, November 5, 2020.
• Markus Garlauskas, “Expect Missile Testing and Probing From North Korea, Not a Cry For Attention or Help.” The National Interest, Dec 2020.
• Amy Zegart, Kim Jong Un: The Hardest Intelligence Target.” The Atlantic, Jul 2017.

 

Monday, April 4

The North Korean Nuclear Threat and US Policy Toward North Korea, Part II

• Eleanor Albert, “The China-North Korea Relationship,” Council on Foreign Relations, March 28, 2018
• Victor Cha, “Engaging North Korea Anew: A Bold Political Strategy Should Accompany Nuclear Negotiations,” Foreign Affairs, November 17, 2020
• Sue Mi Terry, “North Korea’s Nuclear Family: How the Kims Got the Bomb and Why They Won’t Give It Up,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2021
• Joseph Yun, “Is a Deal with North Korea Really Possible? The Gap Between Expectations and Reality,” Foreign Affairs, May 30, 2018.

Oral presentations

Further reading / viewing:

• Anna Fifield, The Great Successor: The Divinely Perfect Destiny of Brilliant Comrade Kim Jong
  Un (Public Affairs, 2019)
• “North Korea’s Deadly Dictator,” Frontline, October 4, 2017 (54 minutes, 47 seconds)

 

Monday, April 11

Challenges and Opportunities of Korean Unification

• Bruce W. Bennett and Jennifer Lind, “The Collapse of North Korea: Military Missions and Requirements,” International Security, Vol. 36, No. 2 (October 11, 2011), 84-119.
• Park Changhee, “North Korean Contingency and Prospects of China’s Military Intervention,” IIRI Working Paper Series 05, October 2010, Seoul Korea.
• Sue Mi Terry, “A Korea Whole and Free,” Foreign Affairs (July/August 2014).
• John Delury and Chung –in Moon, “A Reunified Theory: Should We Welcome the Collapse of North Korea?” Foreign Affairs, Council on Foreign Relations, November/December 2014.

 

Monday, April 18

Past, Present, and Future of US-South Korea Alliance

• “U.S. -South Korea Alliance: Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service. Updated June 23, 2020
• US-ROK Leaders’ Joint Statement, The White House, May 21, 2021
• Cheol Hee Park, “How to renew the purpose of the U.S.-ROK Alliance,” Atlantic Council, March 18, 2021
• Scott Snyder, “Excerpt: The U.S.-South Korea Alliance," Council on Foreign Relations
• Sue Mi Terry, “The Korean Invasion: Can Cultural Exports Give South Korea a Geopolitical Boost?” Foreign Affairs, October 14, 2021
• Sue Mi Terry, “Unified Korea and the Future of the U.S.-South Korea Alliance,” Council on Foreign Relations Discussion Paper, December 2015

Oral presentations

 

Monday, April 25

Historical memory as a driver of tensions in East Asia: Korea-Japan Bilateral Relations and the US Role

• Victor D. Cha, “Hate, Power, and Identity in Japan-Korea Security: Towards a Synthetic Material-Ideational Analytical Framework,” Australian Journal of International Affairs 54, no. 3 (2000):
  309-323.
• “How current Japan-South Korea tensions reflect decades of resentment,” PBS News Hour, August 22, 2019
• “Resolved: The United States Can Fix the Japan-South Korea Problem,” Debating Japan Vol. 4 Issue 4, Center for Strategic and International Studies, July 9, 2021
• Kathryn Botto, “Overcoming Obstacles to Trilateral U.S.-ROK-Japan Interoperability,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 18, 2020

Oral Presentations

 

Monday, May 2

Contemporary Issues in East Asia, Future Projections and Review

Policy Options Paper Due

Finish oral presentations

• Evan A. Feigenbaum, James Schwemlein, “How Biden Cam Make the Quad Endure,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 11, 2011
• Oriana Skylar Maestro, “The Taiwan Temptation: Why Beijing Might Resort to Force,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2021
• Michael Auslin, “The Asian Century is Over,” Foreign Policy, July 31, 2019
• Evan A. Feigenbaum, “Asia’s Future Beyond US-China Competition,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Further reading / viewing:

• Barry Posen, “Emerging Multipolarity: Why Should We Care?” Current History 10, no. 721 (November 2009): 347-352
• Nicholas Eberstadt, “With Great Demographics Comes Great Power: Why Population Will Drive Geopolitics,” Foreign Affairs 98, no. 4 (July/August 2019) (16 pages)